A New Pope: What are the Odds?

The death of the pope is a world event. As the spiritual leader of over a billion Catholics, the pope holds a unique position of both moral authority and diplomatic influence. The death of Pope Francis on April 20, is notable for even more reasons. He was a beloved figure who emphasized humility, justice, and interfaith dialogue in a church that now has a larger presence in the global south than in the global north.

The new pope will be elected through a papal conclave in which over 100 cardinals (who are senior members of the Catholic clergy) will meet together in closed-door deliberations inside the Vatican. It is dramatic viewing as the crowd outside waits for smoke to float out through a chimney indicating that a round of voting has finished. Black smoke indicates that no individual has enough votes to be elected, but white smoke means that the new pope has been chosen.

Papal conclaves capture our imagination because of the potential for drama and internal politics (see the recent Conclave movie for example). Yet, despite the secretive nature of what happens inside the papal conclave, people outside of the conclave have their opinions about who will be the next pope.

In fact, it is even possible to place a bet on who will be the new pope! See this Newsweek article.

To economists, a betting market is a method for aggregating information about uncertain future events. Unlike an opinion poll or an expert's forecast, a betting market incentivizes participants to put their money where their mouth is. This creates an incentive to act on genuine beliefs rather than wishful thinking. When many individuals place bets based on their own knowledge or research, the market odds reflect a collective estimate of the probability of an outcome. In fact, betting markets have been shown to outperform polls in predicting election results, sports outcomes, and even policy decisions.

So, what do the betting markets say? According to one betting venue, the betting favorite is Pietro Parolin, an Italian who has been serving as the Vatican's secretary of state since 2013, while the second favorite is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. According to a different betting venue, Tagle is the favorite. Information is still being aggregated, and it is not clear where the betting lines will be when the conclave begins on May 6.

But be careful. A betting market's ability to predict is only as good as the information and beliefs of the people who place bets. If bettors are primarily betting for entertainment purposes and lack credible information, then the betting odds will not be accurate. For example, bettors might enjoy picking long shots, as if they are trying to win a lottery rather than betting their genuine beliefs. So, betting markets are not perfect aggregators of information, just like surveys and expert predictions are not perfect.

But what if you really want to place a bet? Online gambling is illegal in California, and sports books in Nevada are not taking bets on the new pope. So, if you want to place a bet, you'll have to do it in another country. Many countries in Europe, for example, allow betting on the new pope.

Trying to Understand American Religiosity

One of the main lessons that students should take away from this class is that religion is a robust phenomenon, but at the same time religion and religiosity are dynamic and always changing. It is the ability of religious groups to adapt that enables religion to stay robust as other conditions in the world change.

Keep this big picture in mind as you read this RNS article written by Cornell sociologist Landon Schnabel. Scholars of religion are very interested in understanding how American religion has changed how it continues to change. Of course, one of the biggest changes is the large drop in recent decades in the proportion of Americans who report having a religious affiliation.

As Schnabel writes:

We’re witnessing not simple secularization, but transformation and polarization — a sorting process in which those uncomfortable with religious institutions have largely already left, while those who remain are more committed. 

Our new research, based on the National Study of Youth and Religion, reveals that many of those who left, however, aren’t abandoning faith. Instead they’re rejecting religious organizations they find too rigid, judgmental or politicized.

He also offers a helpful interpretation:

This religious transformation we found stems from what we call individualization, a phenomenon in which people increasingly craft their spiritual lives according to personal values, rather than institutional dictates. Once this sorting process reaches a certain point, with most of those experiencing tension between personal values and institutional demands having already departed, the statistical decline naturally levels off.

And his conclusion:

America isn’t becoming less spiritual — it’s becoming differently spiritual.

Read the article in its entirety; it's not that long! As you read, think about the dynamism of religious markets and how religious groups may be able to adapt in the face of this individualization. Can these "differently spiritual" individuals find their way back to affiliation with organized religion? Will changes in their life -- like marriage or parenthood -- bring them back into organized religion? Or will it be adaptations by the religious groups that draw them back? What kinds of adaptations would be able to bring them back?

The Wrestling Church

Not all religious groups actively court new members, but those that do will often get very creative in reaching new audiences. Such is the case with St. Peter's Anglican Church in Shipley, England. Dubbed the "Wrestling Church," this congregation is hosting wrestling matches in their church to raise interest and attendance. See this article published by the AP.

Here's a good passage from the article:

“You’ve got to take a few risks,” said the Rev. Natasha Thomas, the priest in charge at St. Peter’s. She acknowledged that she “wasn’t entirely sure what it was I was letting myself in for” when she agreed to host wrestling events.

“It’s not church as you would know it. It’s certainly not for everyone,” she said. “But it’s bringing in a different group of people, a different community, than we would normally get.”

At a recent Wrestling Church evening, almost 200 people — older couples, teenagers, pierced and tattooed wrestling fans, parents with excited young children — packed into chairs around a ring erected under the vaulted ceiling of the century-old church.

After a short homily and prayer from Thomas, it was time for two hours of smackdowns, body slams and flying headbutts. The atmosphere grew cheerfully raucous, as fans waved giant foam fingers and hollered “knock him out!” at participants.

Skim the article quickly but take more time examining the pictures. Here are three things that caught my eye:

• The striking visual of the wrestling ring in the middle of the high-arched sanctuary.
• The written message on the shirt of the body-slamming wrestler.
• The looks on the faces of the attendees as they look at the wrestlers who took their match outside the ring.

Real-time AI Translation at Church

From the adoption of the printing press to print religious tracts and books centuries ago to the creation of ebooks, smart phone apps, podcasts and more in the 21st century, many religious groups have been at the forefront of technology adoption. This is particularly true for religious groups that actively seek new members.

It with that background that you should read this article about how some churches are now using AI technologies in real-time to translate sermons for visitors whose primarily language differs from the language of the sermon.

Some basic economics helps us to evaluate this development.

First, think of the demand side. The benefits of attending a church will be lower, all else equal, for people who attend if they cannot understand what is being said or done during the service. The real-time translation thus raises the benefits to attending for those persons even if the sermon is in a different language than their own. The availability of real-time AI translation thus raises demand for church attendance.

Next, think of the supply side. Real-time translation has traditionally been very costly. Translators are expensive to hire, and even if you have someone in your congregation who is willing to do the translation voluntarily, you still must have some technological equipment to enable listeners to hear the translation, e.g., a microphone for the translator, a radio transmitter, some headsets for those who listen. And if your congregation's translator is away on vacation one week, you might be out of luck even if you have the equipment. That means that a real-time AI translator provides some security, and the less expensive the AI translation service, the more attractive the AI option becomes. Improvements in AI translation thus lower the cost to improving the quality of religious supply.

There can still be problems, however. For example, as mentioned in the article, religious sermons often use special religious words and expressions, and if your AI translator is not sufficiently trained on religious language, then its translation may be inaccurate and less useful.

Nonetheless, I expect that real-time AI translation becomes more common in religious settings over time for two reasons.

First, there is underlying demand for translation services by many religious groups.  Even if a congregation has not translated their sermons in the past, it doesn't mean that they don't want to. It might just mean that it has been too costly to do so.

Second, AI technology should continue to improve. Don't be surprised if real-time AI translation becomes a standard part of religious worship for many religious groups in upcoming years.