The Religious Liberty Commission

In this class you will learn about the United States Commision on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF). The USCIRF was created by an Act of the U.S. Congress in 1998, its primary purpose being to monitor and analyze violations of religious freedom outside of the U.S.

A few weeks ago, on 1 May 2025, Pres. Trump created the Religious Liberty Commission (RLC) by an executive order. The RLC has a similar purpose as the USCIRF but with a different domain. While the USCIRF focuses on religious freedom outside of the U.S., the RLC focuses on religious freedom inside of the U.S.

You can read the actual executive order creating the RLC on the White House's website. It's not too long. That same day, Pres. Trump appointed several members to server on the commission, and just a few days ago he also appointed more people to serve on advisory boards.

An interesting difference between the USCIRF and the RLC is that the USCIRF was created by an Act of Congress, while the RLC was created by an executive order. This means that the USCIRF is more permanent because it can only be disbanded by another Act of Congress or a court ruling. The RLC, on the other hand, can be disbanded by another executive order or a court ruling. For example, if the next president does not want the RLC to continue, then new president can just disband it, but if the next president does not want the USCIRF to continue, then they must work through Congress with no guarantee of success.

It will take some time to determine the value of the RLC and if it even continues past Pres. Trump. Like the USCIRF, the RLC will provide reports on religious freedom and advise the president on matters related to religious freedom. It is then a question of whether the president or others will take that advice.

However, even if the advice of the RLC is completely ignored, the RLC might provide interesting data. Reports created by the USCIRF were used to create measures of religious regulation in different countries for use in quantitative social scientific research (see p. 37 of the MM book). Maybe future scholars will find similar ways to create new data from RLC reports that they can use to do research on the U.S.

The creation of the RLC is something that you can remember from this quarter. In fact, it's a fun coincidence that it happened while you are taking Econ 17, which makes it good timing for you! It is a current event related directly to key ideas and concepts in our class, including Top Ten Principles 7-10.

The New Pope and the Existence of God

Many people were surprised when Robert Prevost was elected as the new pope of the Catholic Church on May 8. He is highly qualified and by all accounts an exceptional person, but he was not one of the betting favorites. He was also born in the U.S., making him the first American-born pope in the church's history. By taking the name Leo XIV, he also signaled a connection to prior popes of that name, including Pope Leo XII who led the church in the late 1800s and is known for his contributions to Catholic social teaching.

Pope Leo XIV has already made headlines with his first address to Catholic leadership in which he laid out his vision for the Catholic Church and expressed his thoughts about what he considers the most pressing issues facing humanity. Interestingly, among those are the rise of artificial intelligence.

But I want to draw your attention to something he wrote long before he was elected as pope. He majored in mathematics in college and undertook extensive theological training, and it is this combination of the mathematical and theological that caught my eye.

In 1990 he published a book called Probabilistic and Theistic Explanation that brings together his mathematical, theological, and philosophical interests.

As soon as I learned about this book, I looked to see if the UCI Library had it, and it did! So, I rushed  over to Langson, eventually got the book (after getting a library worker to reset the rolling shelf that wasn't working properly), checked it out, and read it over the next several days.

Remember Pascal's decision from way back in the first chapter and lectures of our class? Well, I think that the simplest way to describe Prevost's book to you is that in it he is confronting philosophical issues related to what variable p should be, i.e., what probability should be assigned to the existence of God. But the book is not about what specific value p should take. Instead, the book is about how people should think about how to determine what p is. What different types of logical and philosophical arguments can be used, what are the pros and cons of different types of arguments and evidence, and so on.

The main point he makes is two-fold. First, deductive arguments in which a person assumes a premise about the world and then deduces Gods' existence are less compelling for deciding what p is. Second, the most appropriate kind of argument is an inductive one in which a person considers a large body of evidence holistically and concludes that the existence of God best explains the evidence.

You do not need to read this book for our class, but you should know at the least that people continue to think deeply about key ideas that you've been taught. What probability should a person assign to the existence of God? How should a person even go about thinking about how to assign that probability? Are some ways of thinking about the existence of God more appropriate than others? These are questions that people--both religious and not religious--have been taking seriously for hundreds of years. And will take seriously for hundreds of years more.

Evidence that Gen Z is Getting More (not Less) Religious

The world is getting less religious, right? You've probably heard this before, and it is true that religiosity has been declining for years in many (but not all) parts of the world. That is why it is always interesting to learn if that trend is continuing or not.

Well, a recent survey from the United Kingdom has found that religiosity actually appears to be increasing with Generation Z. Remember that Gen Z includes those born roughly between 1997 and 2012 (that likely includes you!).

The survey, which was conducted at the end of 2024, found that almost half of 18-24 year-olds in the U.K. report that they "definitely or probably" believe in a God, which is much higher than the reported 29% for people in that age group in 2018.

See this Newsweek article for more details.

Can these new results be explained? Here's a quote from the article:

The question of what motivates the turn toward faith documented in the latest data remains open. Some researchers have pointed to global instability, the isolating effects of digital life and the yearning for meaning in a post-pandemic world as possible drivers. 

Others credit the accessibility of religious content through social media and influencers, some like [Giavanna] Desantis—who has over 220K followers and 4.4M likes on TikTok alone—speak directly to a generation navigating complex identity issues. The creator's own experience illustrates the role personal testimony and online communities can play.

Perhaps a better question is whether these survey results reflect a real change in a long trend in religiosity in the U.K. or whether it is just a temporary blip. What do you think? Are there some experiences that Gen Z has gone through that others have not that will impact their religiosity? Or is this survey evidence signaling a reversal—or at least a stoppage—of declining religiosity in some parts of the world?

A New Pope: What are the Odds?

The death of the pope is a world event. As the spiritual leader of over a billion Catholics, the pope holds a unique position of both moral authority and diplomatic influence. The death of Pope Francis on April 20, is notable for even more reasons. He was a beloved figure who emphasized humility, justice, and interfaith dialogue in a church that now has a larger presence in the global south than in the global north.

The new pope will be elected through a papal conclave in which over 100 cardinals (who are senior members of the Catholic clergy) will meet together in closed-door deliberations inside the Vatican. It is dramatic viewing as the crowd outside waits for smoke to float out through a chimney indicating that a round of voting has finished. Black smoke indicates that no individual has enough votes to be elected, but white smoke means that the new pope has been chosen.

Papal conclaves capture our imagination because of the potential for drama and internal politics (see the recent Conclave movie for example). Yet, despite the secretive nature of what happens inside the papal conclave, people outside of the conclave have their opinions about who will be the next pope.

In fact, it is even possible to place a bet on who will be the new pope! See this Newsweek article.

To economists, a betting market is a method for aggregating information about uncertain future events. Unlike an opinion poll or an expert's forecast, a betting market incentivizes participants to put their money where their mouth is. This creates an incentive to act on genuine beliefs rather than wishful thinking. When many individuals place bets based on their own knowledge or research, the market odds reflect a collective estimate of the probability of an outcome. In fact, betting markets have been shown to outperform polls in predicting election results, sports outcomes, and even policy decisions.

So, what do the betting markets say? According to one betting venue, the betting favorite is Pietro Parolin, an Italian who has been serving as the Vatican's secretary of state since 2013, while the second favorite is Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines. According to a different betting venue, Tagle is the favorite. Information is still being aggregated, and it is not clear where the betting lines will be when the conclave begins on May 6.

But be careful. A betting market's ability to predict is only as good as the information and beliefs of the people who place bets. If bettors are primarily betting for entertainment purposes and lack credible information, then the betting odds will not be accurate. For example, bettors might enjoy picking long shots, as if they are trying to win a lottery rather than betting their genuine beliefs. So, betting markets are not perfect aggregators of information, just like surveys and expert predictions are not perfect.

But what if you really want to place a bet? Online gambling is illegal in California, and sports books in Nevada are not taking bets on the new pope. So, if you want to place a bet, you'll have to do it in another country. Many countries in Europe, for example, allow betting on the new pope.

Trying to Understand American Religiosity

One of the main lessons that students should take away from this class is that religion is a robust phenomenon, but at the same time religion and religiosity are dynamic and always changing. It is the ability of religious groups to adapt that enables religion to stay robust as other conditions in the world change.

Keep this big picture in mind as you read this RNS article written by Cornell sociologist Landon Schnabel. Scholars of religion are very interested in understanding how American religion has changed how it continues to change. Of course, one of the biggest changes is the large drop in recent decades in the proportion of Americans who report having a religious affiliation.

As Schnabel writes:

We’re witnessing not simple secularization, but transformation and polarization — a sorting process in which those uncomfortable with religious institutions have largely already left, while those who remain are more committed. 

Our new research, based on the National Study of Youth and Religion, reveals that many of those who left, however, aren’t abandoning faith. Instead they’re rejecting religious organizations they find too rigid, judgmental or politicized.

He also offers a helpful interpretation:

This religious transformation we found stems from what we call individualization, a phenomenon in which people increasingly craft their spiritual lives according to personal values, rather than institutional dictates. Once this sorting process reaches a certain point, with most of those experiencing tension between personal values and institutional demands having already departed, the statistical decline naturally levels off.

And his conclusion:

America isn’t becoming less spiritual — it’s becoming differently spiritual.

Read the article in its entirety; it's not that long! As you read, think about the dynamism of religious markets and how religious groups may be able to adapt in the face of this individualization. Can these "differently spiritual" individuals find their way back to affiliation with organized religion? Will changes in their life -- like marriage or parenthood -- bring them back into organized religion? Or will it be adaptations by the religious groups that draw them back? What kinds of adaptations would be able to bring them back?

The Wrestling Church

Not all religious groups actively court new members, but those that do will often get very creative in reaching new audiences. Such is the case with St. Peter's Anglican Church in Shipley, England. Dubbed the "Wrestling Church," this congregation is hosting wrestling matches in their church to raise interest and attendance. See this article published by the AP.

Here's a good passage from the article:

“You’ve got to take a few risks,” said the Rev. Natasha Thomas, the priest in charge at St. Peter’s. She acknowledged that she “wasn’t entirely sure what it was I was letting myself in for” when she agreed to host wrestling events.

“It’s not church as you would know it. It’s certainly not for everyone,” she said. “But it’s bringing in a different group of people, a different community, than we would normally get.”

At a recent Wrestling Church evening, almost 200 people — older couples, teenagers, pierced and tattooed wrestling fans, parents with excited young children — packed into chairs around a ring erected under the vaulted ceiling of the century-old church.

After a short homily and prayer from Thomas, it was time for two hours of smackdowns, body slams and flying headbutts. The atmosphere grew cheerfully raucous, as fans waved giant foam fingers and hollered “knock him out!” at participants.

Skim the article quickly but take more time examining the pictures. Here are three things that caught my eye:

• The striking visual of the wrestling ring in the middle of the high-arched sanctuary.
• The written message on the shirt of the body-slamming wrestler.
• The looks on the faces of the attendees as they look at the wrestlers who took their match outside the ring.

Real-time AI Translation at Church

From the adoption of the printing press to print religious tracts and books centuries ago to the creation of ebooks, smart phone apps, podcasts and more in the 21st century, many religious groups have been at the forefront of technology adoption. This is particularly true for religious groups that actively seek new members.

It with that background that you should read this article about how some churches are now using AI technologies in real-time to translate sermons for visitors whose primarily language differs from the language of the sermon.

Some basic economics helps us to evaluate this development.

First, think of the demand side. The benefits of attending a church will be lower, all else equal, for people who attend if they cannot understand what is being said or done during the service. The real-time translation thus raises the benefits to attending for those persons even if the sermon is in a different language than their own. The availability of real-time AI translation thus raises demand for church attendance.

Next, think of the supply side. Real-time translation has traditionally been very costly. Translators are expensive to hire, and even if you have someone in your congregation who is willing to do the translation voluntarily, you still must have some technological equipment to enable listeners to hear the translation, e.g., a microphone for the translator, a radio transmitter, some headsets for those who listen. And if your congregation's translator is away on vacation one week, you might be out of luck even if you have the equipment. That means that a real-time AI translator provides some security, and the less expensive the AI translation service, the more attractive the AI option becomes. Improvements in AI translation thus lower the cost to improving the quality of religious supply.

There can still be problems, however. For example, as mentioned in the article, religious sermons often use special religious words and expressions, and if your AI translator is not sufficiently trained on religious language, then its translation may be inaccurate and less useful.

Nonetheless, I expect that real-time AI translation becomes more common in religious settings over time for two reasons.

First, there is underlying demand for translation services by many religious groups.  Even if a congregation has not translated their sermons in the past, it doesn't mean that they don't want to. It might just mean that it has been too costly to do so.

Second, AI technology should continue to improve. Don't be surprised if real-time AI translation becomes a standard part of religious worship for many religious groups in upcoming years.

Is Christianity Still Declining in the U.S.?

In February, the Pew Research Center published some findings from their 2023-24 Religious Landscape Study survey that asks a random sample of Americans many questions about religious participation, family life, religious switching (switching religious groups), and more.

One of the notable findings from their survey is that the percentage of Americans who report a Christian affiliation has held steady in the 2020s after a slow but steady decline in the 2010s. This is an important marker of religiosity in the U.S. because Christianity has always been the most prominent religious tradition in the U.S.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Americans who report no religious affiliation--called the "Nones"-- has also remained about the same in the last few years after a slow but steady increase.

Go to the webpage for their report here. and skim their summary of the findings.

It will take years before researchers can determine if a temporary trend or if this reflects a kind of stabilization in American religiosity, but there are some indications that the stabilization is real. For example, during the 2020s the percentage of Americans who say that they pray daily has been steady at about 44-46%, and the percentage of Americans who say that they attend church monthly has also been steady in the low 30s.

At the same time, there are some indications that American religiosity will continue to decline by some measures. Younger Americans are less likely to identify as religious or as Christian than older Americans.

What do you think about these trends? Do you think religion has stabilized in the U.S.? Or do you think that this is a temporary pause from an otherwise long-run decrease in American religious? Or do you think the opposite, i.e., that American religiosity has come close to its low point and that it will eventually go back up?

What reasons can you give to support your stance?